Estas son las consecuencias para Colombia después de que Fitch Ratings rebajara la calificación crediticia a BB: deberá pagar más intereses

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Colombia’s sovereign credit rating to BB, with a stable outlook, citing ongoing fiscal imbalances and an increase in public debt.

This decision places the country in a speculative category, indicating a higher risk of credit default and potentially impacting international perceptions of the Colombian economy and its access to financing.

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Indeed, according to the specialized portal capital.com, this new rating positions the country critically before investors, as they may now demand greater guarantees and higher interest rates to offset the risk of investing in Colombian bonds and international loans.

Furthermore, the new rating will limit the country’s financing options in the international market. The portal indicated that the national government may only reach out to a limited number of investors who have softened their lending conditions, albeit at higher costs.

Daniel Velandia, director of research at Credicorp Capital, noted that Fitch’s downgrade was expected by the markets. According to Velandia, the agency highlights challenges emphasized by economists, particularly the negative impact of suspending the fiscal rule and the lack of political agreements between the government and Congress to enact tax reforms that facilitate an orderly adjustment.

“With this, two rating agencies now have Colombia at BB, which is an average rating for the country, moving it further away from comparable countries like Peru or Chile in the region, resembling Brazil more, which historically faces many fiscal challenges,” Velandia told Cambio magazine.

In March, the agency maintained the rating at BB+ but changed the outlook from stable to negative, signaling the potential for a downgrade in future assessments. In its latest report, Fitch explained that sustained fiscal deficits will drive an increase in debt as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), distancing the country from the margins shown by other similar economies.

The firm noted that a lack of a credible fiscal anchor, rigidity in public spending, and political difficulties in implementing tax reforms will constrain fiscal consolidation, even after the elections of 2026.

Although Fitch acknowledged Colombia’s track record in maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, partly supported by the independence of the central bank, it warned that high deficits, rising debt, high-interest burdens, and dependence on commodities limit the country’s rating.

Regarding projections, Fitch estimates that Colombia’s fiscal deficit will reach 6.5% of GDP by 2025, a figure lower than the 7.1% anticipated by the government in its Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, yet still high.

The agency also highlighted the recent failure of the tax reform in Congress, leaving a financing gap of 16 trillion pesos that the Executive expected to cover with the reform.

For 2025, Fitch anticipates further deterioration of public finances, with a fiscal deficit that could reach 7.5% of GDP, exceeding the official target of 6.2%. According to the agency, this scenario is attributed to the normalization of interest burdens and the inability of current and future authorities to implement necessary spending adjustments.

The rating agency warned of downward fiscal risks that could affect even its revised forecasts, due to poor revenue performance and the current administration’s reluctance to alter spending priorities.

Fitch also reminded of the government’s decision to invoke the escape clause of the fiscal rule in June, proposing an adjustment for the next three years and arguing that meeting the fiscal rule target would require an adjustment incompatible with macroeconomic stability.